Seasonal Rank distribution and Medals - February 2018

Seasonal Rank distribution and Medals - February 2018

A realistic seasonal rank distribution based on the data of over 4.5 million players. The MMR by medal is an estimate and is constantly adjusted.

I have been asked numerous times about the current rank distribution in Dota 2. We don’t have official and specific info from Valve, but thanks to the work of the community and some tools, it is possible to find a reasonable answer.

The following dataset has the purpose to create a plausible MMR distribution by collecting data from as many players as possible.

Unfortunately, a fraction of the player base is not available as you can’t gather data from Dota 2 profiles that keep their info hidden. Still, with over 4.5 million players analyzed, we can consider this distribution very realistic.

Image: dota.rgp.io

Image: dota.rgp.io

The table is responsive and sortable. If you are using a phone, you may have to turn it sideways for a full view. Otherwise, zoom in or click the grey area to swipe and sort it.

Rank Percentile Rank Percentile Rank Percentile Rank Percentile
Herald 0.01 Crusader 22.78 Legend 75.10 Divine 98.83
Herald 1 0.15 Crusader 1 26.55 Legend 1 79.49 Divine 1 99.14
Herald 2 0.71 Crusader 2 30.48 Legend 2 83.36 Divine 2 99.35
Herald 3 1.59 Crusader 3 34.68 Legend 3 86.40 Divine 3 99.51
Herald 4 2.76 Crusader 4 39.04 Legend 4 88.97 Divine 4 99.62
Herald 5 4.19 Crusader 5 43.44 Legend 5 91.21 Divine 5 99.96
Guardian 5.92 Archon 48.05 Ancient 93.13 Divine 5+ 100.00
Guardian 1 7.96 Archon 1 52.66 Ancient 1 94.66
Guardian 2 10.33 Archon 2 57.18 Ancient 2 95.86
Guardian 3 13.03 Archon 3 61.69 Ancient 3 96.82
Guardian 4 16.02 Archon 4 66.24 Ancient 4 97.57
Guardian 5 19.25 Archon 5 70.67 Ancient 5 98.36

According to these statistics, the average player is an Archon/Archon 1, while an Archon 5 is already way above the average hitting the 70 percentile.

Just a minuscule portion of the player base reached the top ranks, and there is also a huge skill difference between players belonging to the same medal but with a different number of stars.

Only 5% of the players are spread from Ancient 1 to Divine 5+, with Divine starting from above the 98 percentile. Many high ranked players often complain about the current state of the matchmaking, but with less than 1.5% of the player base in Divine, and even split in multiple servers, matching together individuals with similar skills isn’t an easy task.

Only 0.04% of the players have a rank higher than Divine 5! Pro players are a restricted elite group. I am not surprised by their long queue times and that the matchmaking is forced to place them in team with less skilled players.

I will try to update the data monthly, so we will have an idea on how the rank distribution evolves over time, and if there is any change.

MMR distribution by Medal

Comparing the old MMR to the new medals is a more difficult job. Again, we don’t have any info from Valve. We have access to the estimated MMR distribution pre-medals, but honestly that data has almost no value now.

We can use a statistical MMR distribution updated to about two months ago, a work by clarinetEX. He held a survey, gathering data from over one thousand Dota 2 players about their calibration matches, the old MMR, and the medal achieved. Below, the final results.

Image by clarinetEX

Image by clarinetEX

  • Herald: 1 - 839
  • Guardian: 840 - 1709
  • Crusader: 1710 - 2579
  • Archon: 2580 - 3449
  • Legend: 3450 - 4319
  • Ancient: 4320 - 5189
  • Divine: 5190 - 6055+

The MMR by medal is an estimate and is constantly adjusted.

You must have noticed that your medals changed in the past months even when not gaining MMR - and sometimes even when losing it! I believe that Valve re-arranged the system over time to offer a more balanced division.

Most probably, medals aren’t based on a strict MMR, but on a percentile: If you are a Legend and remain stable on your rank while most Legend players are losing theirs, then you deserve a better one. But, this is just a theory.

Dota 2 Gamepedia displays a slightly different distribution, but both are based only on a rough estimation as only Valve has access to the data of all players.

  • Herald: 1 - 700
  • Guardian: 840 - 1550
  • Crusader: 1680 - 2380
  • Archon: 2520 - 3220
  • Legend: 3360 - 4060
  • Ancient: 4200 - 4900
  • Divine: 5040 - 5740

Which distribution should you trust? None. They are helpful to give you an idea of your actual position and the approximate MMR necessary to advance to the next medal, but overall they all have a margin of error.

 

Header Image: dota.rgp.io

Vincenzo is an esports writer with five years of experience. Former head editor for Natus Vincere, he has produced content for DreamHack, FACEIT, DOTAFire, 2P, and more. Follow him on @SkulzDota.